Poker Probabilities | Complete Texas Hold'em Odds Chart
A comprehensive guide to Texas Hold'em probabilities. Covers hand ranking odds, starting hand deal rates, and board texture frequencies — with links to detailed charts for each category.
Why Is Poker a "Game of Probability"?
In poker, the cards you are dealt, the community cards on the board, and the cards your opponents hold are all uncertain. Yet that uncertainty follows mathematical laws.
"A flush draw completes about 35% of the time." "Pocket aces come once every 220 hands." Knowing numbers like these lets you make decisions based on evidence rather than instinct.
This page is a hub for understanding the full picture of poker probabilities. It introduces the key odds for each category, with links to detailed pages for the exact numbers.
Hand Probabilities (Hand Ranking Frequencies)
In Texas Hold'em, you form the best five-card hand from seven cards (2 hole cards + 5 board cards). The probability of completing each hand by the river is shown below.
| Hand | Probability by River | Approximate Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 0.0032% | 1 in ~30,940 |
| Straight Flush | 0.028% | 1 in ~3,590 |
| Four of a Kind | 0.17% | 1 in ~595 |
| Full House | 2.60% | 1 in ~38 |
| Flush | 3.03% | 1 in ~33 |
| Straight | 4.62% | 1 in ~22 |
| Three of a Kind | 4.83% | 1 in ~21 |
| Two Pair | 23.5% | 1 in ~4 |
| One Pair | 43.8% | 1 in ~2 |
| High Card | 17.4% | 1 in ~6 |
By the river, about half of all hands make at least one pair. Conversely, ending up with just high card happens roughly 1 in 6 times.
Draw completion odds are also important. "Outs" are the number of remaining cards that will complete your draw.
| Draw | Next Card | By the River |
|---|---|---|
| Flush Draw (9 outs) | 19.1% | 35.0% |
| OESD / Open-Ended Straight Draw (8 outs) | 17.0% | 31.5% |
| Gutshot / Inside Straight Draw (4 outs) | 8.5% | 16.5% |
For detailed hand ranking frequencies and draw completion rates, see the page below.
Starting Hand Probabilities
Knowing the probability of being dealt each type of hand preflop directly affects your hand selection.
| Hand | Probability | Approximate Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Specific Pocket Pair (e.g., AA) | 0.45% | 1 in ~220 |
| Any Pocket Pair | 5.88% | 1 in ~17 |
| Suited Hand (two cards of the same suit) | 23.5% | 1 in ~4 |
| Specific Suited Hand (e.g., AKs) | 0.30% | 1 in ~331 |
| AKo (Ace-King offsuit) | 0.90% | 1 in ~110 |
In Texas Hold'em there are 1,326 possible starting hand combinations. Each pocket pair has 6 combos, each suited hand has 4 combos, and each offsuit hand has 12 combos.
For win rates by number of players and detailed deal probabilities by hand category, see the page below.
Board Probabilities
Knowing the probabilities of different board textures from the flop onward improves your ability to read and react to the community cards.
| Board Pattern | Probability | Approximate Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Monotone Flop (3 cards of the same suit) | 5.18% | 1 in ~19 |
| Rainbow Flop (3 different suits) | 39.8% | 1 in ~2.5 |
| Paired Board | 16.9% | 1 in ~6 |
| Ace on the Flop | 22.6% | 1 in ~4 |
| Flopping a Set (when holding a pocket pair) | 11.8% | 1 in ~8.5 |
Board texture — suit distribution, connectedness, and whether the board is paired — is a key factor in deciding whether to bet or check.
For detailed board texture frequencies and overcard probabilities, see the page below.
The Rule of 4 and 2
You do not have to memorise the tables. In practice you can approximate from your out count in your head, and that covers almost everything above.
- On the flop, seeing both cards to the river: outs × 4
- On the turn, seeing only the river: outs × 2
A flush draw (9 outs) on the flop: 9 × 4 = 36%. The true figure is 35.0%, so you are within a point. From the turn: 9 × 2 = 18% (actual 19.1%).
An open-ended straight draw (8 outs) from the flop: 8 × 4 = 32% (actual 31.5%). A gutshot (4 outs): 4 × 4 = 16% (actual 16.5%). All accurate enough to act on.
⚠️ One caveat — "× 4 on the flop" only holds when you actually get to see both remaining cards. If you are facing a bet on the flop and expect another on the turn, you are effectively buying one card, so × 2 reflects reality better.
Three Places You Use This
1. Deciding whether to call
The equity a call needs comes from pot odds. Compare that number against your draw's completion rate: above it, call; below it, fold. That comparison is the main return on learning probability at all.
2. Estimating what your opponent has
When an ace hits the board, how often your opponent holds one depends on the situation. Whether they arrived here with a range containing many aces — or not — changes how you play the same board.
3. Knowing how rare your hand really is
A full house comes about once in 38 hands, a flush about once in 33. Feeling like you never get a strong hand is entirely reasonable, because that is genuinely the frequency. Holding that in mind makes it easier to avoid waiting too long for premium holdings.
How to Apply These Probabilities in Real Play
To put probabilities into practice, you need calculation tools such as outs counting and pot odds.
FAQ
What is the rarest hand in poker?
Royal flush. The probability of completing one by the river is about 0.0032% (roughly 1 in 30,940). It is not unusual to play all day without seeing one.
How often are you dealt a pocket pair?
The probability of being dealt any pocket pair (22 through AA) is 5.88%, or about 1 in 17 hands. For a specific pair such as AA, it drops to 0.45%, or about 1 in 220 hands.
What is the probability of flopping a set?
When you hold a pocket pair, the probability of flopping a set is about 11.8% (roughly 1 in 8.5 flops). Sets are powerful but do not come every time. When set mining (calling preflop with a small pair hoping to flop a set), you should also consider implied odds — the extra chips you can win after completing your hand.
Summary
This article covered poker probabilities across three categories.
| Category | Key Probabilities | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Hand Probabilities | Flush: 3.03%, Full House: 2.60% | Hand Probabilities |
| Starting Hands | AA: 0.45%, Any PP: 5.88% | Starting Hand Probabilities |
| Board Probabilities | Monotone: 5.18%, Ace on flop: 22.6% | Board Probabilities |
Probabilities are the "common language" of poker. Once you know the numbers, you can apply them to make better decisions at the table.
To learn how to use these probabilities in practice, see Poker Math Cheat Sheet.
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