Poker Starting Hand Probabilities | Deal Rates & Win Rate Charts
A breakdown of all 1,326 Texas Hold'em starting hand combinations by category. Covers pocket pair, suited, and connector probabilities along with win rate charts by number of players.
This article is a detailed page in the "Poker Probability" series, focusing specifically on starting hand probabilities.
Starting Hand Combinations: The Basics
In Texas Hold'em, you're dealt 2 cards from a 52-card deck. That gives a total of 1,326 possible combinations.
These fall into three main categories. Let's look at the number of combos (combinations) in each.
| Category | Combos per Hand | Hand Types | Total Combos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Pairs | 6 | 13 types | 78 |
| Suited | 4 | 78 types | 312 |
| Offsuit | 12 | 78 types | 936 |
| Total | — | 169 types | 1,326 |
Why the Combo Counts Differ
- Pocket Pairs: Choose 2 from 4 cards of the same rank → 4C2 = 6 combos
- For example, AA has: A♥A♠, A♥A♦, A♥A♣, A♠A♦, A♠A♣, A♦A♣ — 6 combos
- Suited: Same-suit combinations → 4 combos (hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades)
- Offsuit: Different-suit combinations → 4 × 3 = 12 combos
What this means in practice: AKs and AKo are both "AK," but AKs has 4 combos while AKo has 12. That means AKo is dealt 3 times more often than AKs. When you put an opponent on "AK," the vast majority of the time it's offsuit.
Deal Probabilities by Category
Pocket Pair Probabilities
| Hand | Probability | Rough Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| A specific pocket pair (AA, KK, etc.) | 0.45% | About 1 in 220 hands |
| Any pocket pair (22–AA) | 5.88% | About 1 in 17 hands |
| QQ or better (QQ, KK, AA) | 1.36% | About 1 in 74 hands |
| TT or better | 2.26% | About 1 in 44 hands |
You'll pick up any pocket pair roughly once every 17 hands. For AA specifically, it's once every 220 hands. If you play 30 hands per hour, you'll see AA about once every 7 hours. Feeling like AA never comes? That's perfectly normal from a probability standpoint.
Suited Hand Probabilities
| Hand | Probability | Rough Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Any suited hand | 23.5% | About 1 in 4 hands |
| A specific suited hand (AKs, etc.) | 0.30% | About 1 in 331 hands |
| Suited connectors (76s, 87s, etc.) | 3.02% | About 1 in 33 hands |
Your two hole cards will be the same suit about 1 in 4 hands. Suited hands are more valuable than their offsuit counterparts because they can make flush draws (needing just one more card to complete a flush).
Connector & Broadway Probabilities
| Hand | Probability | Rough Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Connectors (consecutive ranks, e.g., 87 or 65) | About 6.0% | About 1 in 17 hands |
| Broadway hands (two cards T through A) | About 14.3% | About 1 in 7 hands |
| Premium hands (QQ+, AKs, AKo) | About 2.6% | About 1 in 39 hands |
Premium hands refer to pocket pairs QQ and above plus AK (both suited and offsuit). The probability of being dealt one is about 2.6% — only once every 39 hands.
Starting Hand Win Rate Charts
Here are preflop expected win rates for each hand when facing a random opponent hand.
2-Player (Heads-Up) Win Rates
| Hand | Win Rate (vs Random) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 85.2% | The strongest hand — favored against everything |
| KK | 82.4% | Only behind AA |
| 79.9% | Loses to AA and KK | |
| AKs | 67.0% | Roughly 50:50 against pairs (a coin flip) |
| AKo | 65.4% | Slightly worse than AKs |
| JJ | 77.5% | Overcards (Q or higher) appear on the board often |
| TT | 75.1% | Tricky when a J or higher hits |
| 99 | 72.1% | The classic medium pair |
| AQs | 66.1% | Strong but dominated by AK |
| 72o | 34.6% | The poster child for the worst hand |
Win Rate Changes at 6- and 9-Player Tables
As the number of players increases, each hand's win rate drops.
| Hand | 2 Players | 6 Players | 9 Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 85.2% | 49.2% | 35.1% |
| KK | 82.4% | 43.3% | 29.3% |
| 79.9% | 39.5% | 26.0% | |
| AKs | 67.0% | 28.6% | 20.2% |
| 72o | 34.6% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
Note: These win rates assume all players see the river. In real games, players fold along the way, so these numbers won't translate directly into actual win rates. Use them as a guide for your preflop decision-making.
Win Rate Benchmarks for Hand Matchups
Here are the most common patterns when specific hands clash.
| Matchup Pattern | Example | Approximate Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Overpair vs underpair | KK vs 88 | About 80% : 20% |
| Pair vs two overcards | QQ vs AKo | About 55% : 45% |
| Domination (shared card) | AK vs AQ | About 70% : 30% |
For a deeper dive into hand-vs-hand win rates (equity), check out the article below.
Summary
Understanding starting hand probabilities directly improves your preflop decision-making.
- Better decisions on whether to play: Premium hands only come once every 39 hands. Accept that some hands simply won't come no matter how long you wait
- Read your opponent's range: AKo is dealt 3 times more often than AKs. When an opponent "has AK," it's usually offsuit
- Avoid overconfidence with strong hands: Even AA only wins 35% of the time at a 9-player table. Strong hands still require caution in multiway pots
- Understand the danger of domination: AK vs AQ is 70:30. Even similar-looking hands can have a huge edge over each other
Now that you know the deal probabilities, it's time to learn the odds of what comes on the board.
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