All-In EV, Red Line & Blue Line in Poker | How to Read Your Winnings Graph

What You'll Learn

If you've ever looked at your winnings graph in a tracker and wondered "Does All-In EV actually tell me how lucky I got?" or "What are the red line and blue line anyway?" — this article is for you.

Here's what we'll cover:

• What All-In EV is really calculating
• How to read luck from the gap between your real winnings and All-In EV
• What the red line (non-showdown winnings) means
• What the blue line (showdown winnings) means

We're focusing purely on what each line means and how to read it.

The Winnings Graph

A winnings graph is a line chart where the Y-axis is cumulative winnings (in bb) and the X-axis is hand count. The line moves up and down as you play.

Trackers like PokerTracker 4 and Hold'em Manager 3 (as well as in-app graph features in poker clients) typically display four lines overlapping on the same chart:

• Green line: Real winnings (your actual cumulative profit/loss)
• Orange line: All-In EV (explained below)
• Red line: Non-showdown winnings (explained below)
• Blue line: Showdown winnings (explained below)

This article unpacks what each of these four lines means, one by one.

What Is All-In EV?

All-In EV is a hypothetical winnings line representing "what would have happened if every all-in had resolved exactly according to each player's equity, rather than whatever actually came out on the board." It's the orange line.

The calculation is simple:

1. At the moment an all-in is called, both players' hands are exposed (effectively a showdown)
2. An equity calculator determines "You: X% / Opponent: Y%"
3. Instead of recording the actual result, the tracker records "Pot × Equity" as each player's share
4. Accumulating those hypothetical shares produces the All-In EV line (orange)

For example, say A♥A♠ goes all-in preflop against K♥K♣ with 100bb stacks. Pot is 200bb, and AA has about 82% equity.

All-In EV distributes the pot as follows:

• AA's side: Credited with 200bb × 82% = 164bb. Minus the 100bb invested, that's +64bb, so the EV line (orange) rises
• KK's side: Credited with only 200bb × 18% = 36bb. Minus 100bb, that's −64bb, so the EV line falls

If in reality the turn brings K♠ and KK wins, the real winnings line (green) moves +100bb for KK and −100bb for AA. So on AA's graph, the EV was +64bb but the real result was −100bb — the green line is pulled 164bb below the orange (= running below).

On the other hand, if K♥ hits on the flop and the all-in happens on the turn, KK's equity jumps above 90%. If KK wins this spot, they deserved to win, but since "Pot × 90%+" has already been credited to KK on the EV line, the green line only rises about 10% of the pot (around 20bb) above the orange. Winning when you deserve to win → the gap between green and orange stays small. That's how EV is designed to read.

Luck and the Real Winnings Graph: The Gap from All-In EV

The rule is simple:

• If you win the hand, green moves above (you got lucky on that hand)
• If you lose the hand, orange moves above (you got unlucky on that hand)

Equity doesn't affect the direction of luck — only the size of the movement (in bb). In a 100bb vs 100bb all-in (200bb pot):

• Win with 80% equity → green is +40bb above (slightly lucky)
• Win with 20% equity → green is +160bb above (very lucky)
• Lose with 80% equity → green is −160bb below (very unlucky)
• Lose with 20% equity → green is −40bb below (slightly unlucky)

The cumulative graph is simply the sum of each hand's luck signal (± the gap).

That said, judging luck from short-term graph shape is dangerous. At tens of thousands of hands, random fluctuation is still massive.

Luck That All-In EV Doesn't See

Here's the catch: All-In EV only captures luck from situations where an all-in happens while both players still have equity. Luck from any other situation doesn't show up in the gap between green and orange at all.

Classic example: You play the flop and turn with normal bets and calls, and on the river your opponent completes a straight. You call their all-in with top set. At the moment of the all-in (the river), your equity is essentially 0%. Distributing by equity means "you were supposed to lose" — so the All-In EV line doesn't show the bad beat. Only the real line drops.

Red Line & Blue Line: A Separate Concept

The red and blue lines share the same graph as the real and All-In EV lines, but they measure something entirely different.

• Real vs All-In EV = visualizing luck
• Red line & blue line = breaking down skill type (separating showdown winnings from non-showdown winnings)

Don't conflate the two.

How Blue Line & Red Line Relate to Real Winnings

The blue line is the cumulative net winnings of hands that went to showdown (Showdown Winnings, abbreviated as SD Won). Only hands where both players showed their cards are counted.

• Winning a showdown → blue line goes up
• Losing a showdown → blue line goes down

The red line is the cumulative net winnings of hands that ended before showdown (Non-Showdown Winnings, abbreviated as Non-SD Won). Only hands where someone folded are counted.

• Getting your opponent to fold and winning the pot → red line goes up
• Folding and losing what you put in → red line goes down

And adding the blue line and red line together equals the real winnings line (green). In other words, your real winnings are decomposable into these two components.

Under GTO-style play, the typical pattern is blue line trending up, red line trending down.

That said, in fold-heavy pools (where opponents over-fold), some players are reported to keep the red line flat or even upward-sloping through aggressive bluffing while still growing their real winnings.

Check Your Own Graph

Look at your own graph and see how your blue and red lines are moving. Here are the key points for nudging each one in the right direction.

How to Make Your Blue Line Climb

• Fold properly: Don't call down unnecessarily with hands that are beat — fold at the right spots
• Extract value fully: Lower your value threshold appropriately so you bet (and get called) with thinner hands too
• Catch bluffs: Correctly call your opponent's bluffs and win at showdown

How to Push Your Red Line Up

• Increase bet frequency: Lower the value threshold and aggressively bet/raise (including bluffs) to give opponents more chances to fold
• Don't fold too much: Defend appropriately against aggression so you don't concede the chips you've already invested

Summary

Your winnings graph can be read on two axes:

• Real winnings (green) vs All-In EV (orange) = visualizing luck (but only the portion from all-in spots where equity remained)
• Blue line (showdown) + Red line (non-showdown) = the breakdown of real winnings. Under GTO, expect blue up and red down by default; in softer pools, a flat or rising red line is a viable style too

Two things to keep in mind so you don't misread the graph:

1. All-In EV and the red/blue lines are completely separate concepts — don't mix up the luck story and the skill story
2. Even when green and orange overlap, luck from non-all-in spots isn't captured

Once you can read the graph correctly, you can calmly diagnose causes when losing and avoid getting swept away by luck when winning.

If you want to diagnose your play with more granular stats, check this out too.

Poker Stats Guide | Key HUD Metrics, Formulas & Optimal Values

A complete guide to VPIP, PFR, AF, 3-Bet%, WTSD and more — their meanings, optimal values, and practical applications.

📖 15 min ★★☆☆☆

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To revisit the concept of EV itself:

What Is Expected Value (EV) in Poker? Understanding the True Definition

The correct definition of EV, how it differs from equity, EV loss, and the role of variance.

📖 8 min ★★★☆☆

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